TL;DR
A University of Cambridge study surveying 258 published UK novelists and 74 industry figures found 51% believe AI could entirely replace their work. More than a third (39%) report income declines attributed to generative AI, with romance and thriller authors identified as most exposed to displacement. Many discovered AI-generated titles listed under their names without authorisation, whilst expressing frustration with copyright protections failing to keep pace with technological change.
Financial Impact Already Materialising for Authors
The research from Cambridge’s Minderoo Centre for Technology and Democracy reveals that AI’s impact on professional writers has moved beyond theoretical concern to measurable economic harm. Many participants reported their work was used without permission to train large language models, with 39% experiencing income reductions they attribute to generative AI. A large majority expect further earnings decline.
Dr Clementine Collett, the report’s author, notes: “There is widespread concern from novelists that generative AI trained on vast amounts of fiction will undermine the value of writing and compete with human novelists. Many novelists felt uncertain there will be an appetite for complex, long-form writing in years to come.”
The displacement risk varies by genre. Romance authors face highest exposure to AI tools now capable of producing long-form fiction, followed closely by thriller and crime novelists. Several respondents discovered AI-generated titles listed online under their names—books they never wrote. Others reported AI-generated reviews featuring muddled characters or incorrect details, potentially damaging sales through attribution errors.
Tracy Chevalier, author of Girl With a Pearl Earring, frames the competitive dynamic: “I worry that an industry driven mainly by profit will be tempted to use AI more and more to generate books. If it is cheaper to produce novels using AI…publishers will almost inevitably choose to publish them. And if they are priced cheaper than human-made books, readers are likely to buy them, the way we buy machine-made jumpers rather than the more expensive hand-knitted ones.”
Despite concerns, approximately one-third of novelists already use AI—primarily for information sourcing rather than creative work. Almost all strongly oppose AI writing novels or passages, rejecting editing assistance as well. A recurring theme is frustration with the government’s proposed “rights reservation” system allowing AI firms to mine text unless authors opt out, rather than requiring informed consent and payment for training data use.
Looking Forward
The timing is significant. The report arrives amid growing scrutiny of Amazon’s marketplace, which experts describe as a “wild west” for AI-generated books due to regulatory absence. It follows Anthropic’s September agreement to pay $1.5 billion to authors who accused the company of using pirated works for chatbot training. Authors fear AI may weaken human connection between writers and readers precisely when UK reading engagement hits historic lows—only one-third of children now enjoy reading in free time, the lowest level in two decades. The copyright protection gap versus technological advancement speed will determine whether professional long-form fiction writing remains economically viable.
Source: The Guardian