TL;DR

New research from the National Foundation for Educational Research (NFER) suggests up to 3 million low-skilled UK jobs could disappear by 2035 due to AI and automation. Trades, machine operations and administrative roles face the highest risk, whilst professional positions are expected to grow.

The Skills Divide Deepens

A striking new analysis from the NFER paints a nuanced picture of AI’s impact on the UK workforce. While the economy is expected to add 2.3 million jobs overall by 2035, the distribution will be deeply uneven—with lower-skilled workers bearing the brunt of technological displacement.

The findings contrast with recent research suggesting highly skilled technical roles face greater AI disruption. King’s College research from October estimated higher-paying firms suffered 9.4% job losses between 2021 and 2025, coinciding with ChatGPT’s emergence.

Mixed Signals from Industry

The corporate response to AI remains inconsistent. Law firm Clifford Chance recently cut 10% of business services staff (approximately 50 roles) citing AI, whilst PwC’s head publicly revised hiring plans, acknowledging AI had fundamentally changed recruitment needs.

Yet NFER report author Jude Hillary suggests these layoffs may reflect broader economic uncertainty rather than genuine AI displacement. Rising national insurance costs and general risk aversion could be driving employers to “sit tight” rather than embrace transformative automation.

The Reskilling Challenge

Perhaps most concerning is the barrier facing displaced workers. Hillary notes that new positions tend to be professional and associate professional roles—positions requiring significant reskilling that may prove challenging for those losing lower-skilled employment.

“Displaced workers, the one to three million that we talk about in our report, face significant barriers to get back into the labour market,” Hillary explained.

Looking Forward

The research suggests UK businesses and policymakers face a critical window to address the emerging skills gap. Without substantial investment in retraining programmes, the benefits of AI-driven productivity gains risk being concentrated among already-advantaged workers, whilst others face prolonged displacement.

Source: The Guardian